Brodie to "step down"

I will assume that the news that Ian Brodie will be stepping down as Harper's chief of staff is related to the fact that the report into the NAFTAgate investigation will be released in a few days, as the timing is too coincidental to be considered anything but a preemptive move.

Brodies replacement is going to be former chief of staff to Mike Harris, Guy Giorno. Giorno is supposed to be taking over effectively July 1st.

Wednesday News Notes

Well what was supposed to be a brief hiatus from blogging as I recuperated from exams went on for a little longer than I had indented, but without further adieu I’m back.

1) The Strategic Counsel poll in this mornings Globe finally brings SC’s polling numbers in line with other numbers that we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks. Here’s the breakdowns:

National:
Cons: 34
Libs: 31
NDP: 16
Bloc: 9
Greens: 10

Ontario:
Cons: 35
Libs: 40
NDP: 14
Greens: 11

Quebec:
Cons: 20
Libs: 25
NDP: 8
Bloc: 38
Greens: 9

Of note; the national numbers represent a 5-point drop for the Conservatives since early February when SC had them flirting with majority territory at 39%. The Liberals have been the main beneficiaries as they’re up 4 points, however I’d argue that has more to do with the fact that they’re the official opposition than anything substantive coming from the party. Also of note, the Bloc numbers continue to remain in the high 30’s in the national polls while provincial polls have them closer to 30.

2) I was very impressed with Dallaire taking on Kenney yesterday over human rights. I’m less than impressed with Dion’s response to Dallaire’s statement.

3) The ethics commissioner ruling on Thibault seems to set a troubling precedent as one would only have to slap an MP with a lawsuit if they didn’t want them asking questions on a particular issue. Therefore, good on Pat Martin (as shocked as I am to find myself typing those words) for putting forward a motion to amend the Code of Conduct so that defamations lawsuits no longer count as a conflict of interest. Over at MacLeans Aaron Wherry has a humorous take on how the ethics commissioners ruling could be applied to Harpers lawsuit against the Liberals.

4) There’s been a lot of talk recently about the Liberals implementing a carbon tax, which I think is a great idea and when the blue-ribbon panel the Conservatives commissioned to study ways to reduce GHGs released it’s report a few months ago it agreed. As for selling the plan to Canadians I think marketing it as a tax shifting policy by balancing the carbon tax with a reduction in income taxes is the way to go. Also, Steve has been making some excellent suggestions about how to sell the policy to voters over on his blog.

Bill C-10 a Confidence Motion?

Here's a sure sign that despite all the Conservative troubles they don't think that the Liberals have enough of a backbone to force an election; Flaherty is not going to allow any amendments to C-10 that would get rid of the Conservatives plan to censor all films applying for a tax credit. Therefore, Liberals have to decide if they're going to keep avoiding an election and vote for censorship, or just finally force an election. Personally, I think we should force an election (which should not be a surprise to regular readers of this blog) but I'm not going to hold my breath.

Wow

When I saw the Bloc introduce this motion of confidence in Elections Canada yesterday I thought it was a funny way to back the Conservatives into a corner. Never in my wildest dreams did I think that the Conservatives would actually vote non-confidence in elections Canada.

It is beyond ironic that a separatist party has confidence in a Canadian institution while both the governing party and the Prime Minister do not.

Also from the craziest story I've ever seen comes the best quote I've seen in a long time from Duceppe:

"Mr. Harper doesn't feel at ease with civil servants, with independent organizations or offices, with journalists, with the opposition – in a word, with democracy."

Quick Hits

1) It's time for election speculation once again. This time I'm not going to get my hopes up that we'll actually force an election though I think we should. Some others have already made a good case for why the immigration issue might be the one to go on.

2) Kady does an excellent job of destroying the Conservative conspiracy theories surrounding the RCMP raid.

3) Speaking of the RCMP raid, I'll join the list of people who would love to see the warrant made public so we can find out what they were searching for.

4) Bob Rae did an excellent job of making the case for why Bernier should resign. Not that anyone expects he actually will.

5) Here's to hoping that there isn't a TTC strike just as I finish exams and come home and need to use the TTC.

The Raid Continues

Despite the Conservatives desperate attempts to downplay yesterdays RCMP raid, they'll have a little more trouble convincing people that it was only a minor thing as the RCMP have now spent a second day going through Conservative Party HQ.

A new poll from Harris-Decima taken before both Bernier's remarks and the RCMP raid puts the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives, so one would think that the Liberals will finally decide that it's time to have an election.

Given both these things one has to wonder what the discussion is in the Conservative backrooms (those without RCMP officers) as their attempt to spin Elections Canada as being biased against them doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

What Kind of Canada were the Conservatives Asking Us to Stand Up For?

The Conservatives made a point of making the last election all about ethics and accountability. They were the party that said it was going to clean up Ottawa and a lot of people voted for them for that reason. Boy I bet a bunch of them want their votes back now.

The Conservatives only rebuttal is to see how many times they can get their anonymous source quoted as calling this a PR stunt. However there are some major gaps in their logic if they really think that people will believe that Elections Canada was trying to intimidate them in some way over the civil suit the Conservatives launched. First off, search warrants are for criminal cases, not civil ones. Secondly, the justice of the peace who signs a search warrant must be convinced that there are reasonable grounds that something will actually be found. Maybe something like documents the Conservatives were withholding.

Furthermore, why would Elections Canada need to engage in a PR stunt? They've been in the right in other cases against the Conservatives, and there's no reason to believe that they aren't in this case. Also the majority of people, excluding those who drink too much of their respective party's kool-aid, would trust Elections Canada, an independent body, over a political party any day. But the Conservatives hate Elections Canada enough to forget that the average Canadian doesn't feel the same.

A Headline the Conservatives Never Wanted to See:

Mounties Search Tory Headquarters.

Apparently the RCMP is executing a search warrant on Conservative Party HQ at the request of Elections Canada. Though it hasn't been said why the search is taking place, most people seem to be assuming that it has to do with the "In and Out Scandal".

Kady is helpfully liveblogging the entire process.

Maybe now the Liberal "braintrust" will decide to topple the government.

New Nanos Poll

First off the numbers:

Canada:
Cons: 36 (+5)
Libs: 36 (+3)
NDP: 14 (-5)
Bloc: 8 (-2)
Greens: 6 (-2)

Atlantic:
Cons: 31 (+9)
Libs: 51 (+9)
NDP: 14 (-13)
Greens: 3 (-6)

Quebec:
Cons: 23 (NC)
Libs: 23 (+1)
NDP: 13 (+1)
Bloc: 35 (-2)
Greens: 6 (NC)

Ontario:
Cons: 32 (+1)
Libs: 50 (+7)
NDP: 13 (-6)
Greens: 6 (-1)

West:
Cons: 51 (+11)
Libs: 28 (-1)
NDP: 16 (-5)
Greens: 6 (-4)

I’m not sure that this poll is good news for anyone. While the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives, Nik points out in his analysis on his blog that the poll was taken as the story of Lukiwski’s comments was breaking. That combined with Flaherty’s attack on Ontario seems to have driven voters away from the NDP and Greens and towards the Liberals, as I highly doubt anyone has been inspired by the Liberals performance of abstaining.

While Conservatives can take some comfort in the fact that their numbers have not slipped, the fact that they’re tied with a Liberal party that’s in complete disarray should have them re-considering their strategy.
The Greens should be concerned, as despite their excellent showing in the by-elections some of their support seems to have slipped to the Liberals. This seems to suggest that there is still a fraction of Green supporters who will vote strategically depending on how things play out.

Another party that should be concerned about their potential supporters voting strategically depending on how an election plays out is the NDP. In the last election they gained quite a bit of support from voters who would normally vote Liberal, but consistently the trend seems to be that those who lent Layton their votes want those votes back. Which suggests to me that the NDP should re-think their strategy of attacking the Liberals over the Conservatives.

Finally, the Bloc can’t be very enthusiastic with those results either. Not only does their support seem to be slipping, but also the support for the PQ and Quebec sovereignty suggesting that these numbers are part of a growing trend. A similar trend, it seems, to what was happening before the sponsorship scandal broke. Mind you, if the Conservatives do decide to go on a constitutional foray separatists should expect to see their polling numbers rising.

A Conservative Majority at Any Cost

I would rather still be dealing with the sewage backup that happened at my house yesterday than the repercussions of this headline: If Conservatives win a majority, party says it's willing to reopen federal blueprint, building on declaration of Québécois as a nation.

Apparently this is how the Conservatives think that they can win a majority while writing off Ontario. Never mind the fact that we don't know what legal leverage putting this sort of thing in the constitution would give the next PQ government, it's highly doubtful that there would be enough support to do it. When the issue of giving Quebec nation status originally came up during the leadership race, there was little support for this kind of thing from either the general population or the other provinces.

Given that this exercise seems doomed to fail, one has to wonder if Harper wants a majority badly enough that he's willing to basically poke a sleeping dragon in the eye, or in non metaphorical terms create a national unity crisis. Personally, I'd be ecstatic if we never had to go through another Quebec referendum, but if we let Harper go down this path I believe that's exactly what we're going to get.